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Statistics Canada: Stocks of principal field crops

Please note the following released from Statistics Canada which summarizes a survey of stocks of principal field crops from March 1 to 31, 2019. In this survey; “farmers were asked to report the amounts of grain, oilseeds and special crops in on-farm storage.” All information can be found on the Statistics Canada website by following this link.

“On March 31, 2019, stocks of wheat, barley, corn for grain, oats, dry peas and lentils were down compared with the same date in 2018. Conversely, stocks of canola and soybeans were up year over year. Lower stocks were generally a result of lower on-farm stocks.

Wheat

Total wheat stocks decreased 4.3% from the same day a year earlier to 15.7 million tonnes on March 31. The decrease was led by on-farm stocks, which fell 10.3% year over year to 11.4 million tonnes. In contrast, commercial stocks of wheat were up 16.4% to 4.3 million tonnes.

At the national level, exports of wheat increased 9.1% from the previous year to 15.7 million tonnes on March 31, the highest level on record for this period. Higher exports were likely driven by strong global demand coupled with lower competition from other major wheat-producing countries.

Farm level stocks in Saskatchewan accounted for the greatest proportion of the year-over year decrease, falling 15.8% to 4.9 million tonnes. Alberta reported slightly higher on-farm stocks, rising 0.4% to 4.5 million tonnes.

Canola

Canola stocks increased 10.5% year over year, rising to 10.0 million tonnes on March 31. The increase was led by on-farm stocks which increased 16.5% compared with the previous year to 8.8 million tonnes, while commercial stocks fell 20.0% to 1.2 million tonnes.

Higher stocks on March 31 were a result of fewer deliveries and lower exports in the first quarter of the calendar year. Deliveries continued to be slowed by lower producer prices, which fell from above $500 during the same time in 2018 to under $460 in 2019, and reduced export demand, which in turn was pressured in part by high global oilseed stocks.

Corn for grain

Stocks of corn for grain were down 5.2% compared with the same date one year earlier, to 8.3 million tonnes. The decrease in total corn stocks was led by on-farm stocks which fell 11.9% to 5.9 million tonnes, offsetting an increase in commercial stocks (+16.2%, to 2.4 million tonnes).

Soybeans

Despite a year-over-year increase in exports, record high beginning stocks for the crop year—coupled with higher imports compared with the same date one year earlier—drove soybean stocks higher on March 31. Nationally, total stocks of soybeans were at 2.9 million tonnes on March 31, 4.3% higher than the same date one year earlier. Commercial stocks were responsible for the increase in total soybean stocks, rising 11.8% to 1.2 million tonnes. In contrast, on-farm stocks were down 0.5% to 1.7 million tonnes.

Barley and Oats

Total barley stocks decreased from the same date in 2018, falling 26.6% to 2.5 million tonnes on March 31, a record low for this period. On-farm stocks fell 28.4% to 2.2 million tonnes, while commercial stocks decreased 10.0% to 306 000 tonnes.

Lower year-over-year inventories of barley combined with higher exports to decrease stocks. Low global stocks, strong world prices for feed barley, and low world supplies of malting barley likely drove exports higher (+10.3%) compared with March 31, 2018.

Oat stocks were lower on March 31, declining 33.4% to 1.4 million tonnes from the same date one year earlier. While commercial stocks increased 14.4%, on-farm stocks fell 38.6% to 1.2 million tonnes.

Dry peas and lentils

At the national level, stocks of dry peas fell to 1.7 million tonnes on March 31, 2019, down 25.7% compared with the same date one year earlier. While commercial stocks were up 11.5% to 388 700 tonnes, on-farm stocks offset this increase, falling 32.5% to 1.3 million tonnes.

Total stocks of lentils decreased 15.4% to 1.4 million tonnes compared to the same date one year earlier. The decrease was a result of lower on-farm (-15.6%) and commercial (-14.5%) stocks.

Dry pea exports rose to 2.1 million tonnes from 1.8 million tonnes one year earlier. Despite ongoing tariffs on pea exports to India, exports to other countries such as China and Bangladesh have contributed to the growth in exports. Similarly, exports of lentils grew 41.8% compared with the same date one year earlier to 1.4 million tonnes, despite ongoing tariffs.” 

Record Grain Tonnage Moved in April by Railways

Canada’s two major railways; Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) and Canadian National Railway (CN), bounced back in April after criticisms over their recent grain performance. Along with calls for increased service was a determination by the Canadian Transportation Agency that CN breached its service obligations (a decision which CN plans to appeal). In a recent news release, CN reported that the “total tonnage of grain moved out of Western Canada was an all-time record 2.72 Million Metric Tons (MMT) compared to the three-year average of 2.23 MMT.” (CN, 1). Similarly, CP reported strong numbers in their own news release stating that “April was an all-time record month for Canadian grain and grain products. CP moved a best-ever 2.643 million metric tonnes (MMT) of Canadian grain and grain products this past month, bettering the previous record from October 2018.” (CP, 2).

Both companies have confirmed their intention to supply new hopper cars with increased capacity to deal with growing demand. For CN, this investment means “higher capacity payload hopper cars, with up to 10 per cent more capacity than the older generation” which allow for the phasing out of the older generation and the increasing ability to service future crop yields.

ECHO Program: Voluntary Vessel Slowdown

Since 2015, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority has been spearheading an initiative entitled Enhancing Cetacean Habitat and Observation (ECHO). The program is designed around “managing the impact of shipping activities on at-risk whales throughout the southern coast of British Columbia” and to “develop mitigation measures that will lead to a quantifiable reduction in potential threats to whales as a result of shipping activities.” In order to accomplish this, the ECHO program has targeted three main categories: 1. Acoustic Disturbance 2. Physical Disturbance 3. Environmental Contaminants.

Throughout the years the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority has teamed with local industry partners in order to establish effective mitigation tools aimed at addressing the above 3 threats. Among their successful projects is the vessel slowdown trial which was first tested in 2017 and was designed for the recovery of the endangered southern killer resident whale (SKRW). Named after the host region, the Haro Strait vessel slowdown concluded that “reducing vessel speeds is an effective way of reducing the underwater noise generated at the vessel source.”

Overwhelming participation and feedback from the industry following the flagship year meant an extension for the program into 2018. In a review of the 1st years data; it was acknowledged that the optimum speeds for reducing noise levels were as follows: 15 knots (vehicle carriers/cruise/container vessels) and 12.5 knots (bulkers/tankers). These new speeds were implemented for the following year with the location of the slowdown and total distance remaining unchanged.

The Port of Vancouver held a meeting on May 10th to discuss their intentions for the 2019 voluntary vessel slowdown trial. The amendments reflect the interpretation of the data collected over previous years of the voluntary slowdown program in 2017 and 2018. Among the major recommendations discussed was a proposal to expand the slowdown area to include Boundary Pass. Furthermore, optimal speeds have been narrowed to 14.5 knots (vehicle carriers/cruise/container vessels) and 11.5 knots (bulkers/tankers).

Participation in recent years has been impressive, with 2018 having 87 percent of large commercial piloted vessels engaging in the voluntary slowdown. While all parties understand the limitations and restraints imposed on the commercial shipping industry, continued support from stakeholders is crucial to ensuring the success of the program going forward. We hope to return again next year with positive results and observed benefits to the southern resident killer whale population.

West Coast Marine Response Corporation

The West Coast Marine Response Corporation (WCMRC) is a Transport Canada certified response organization that has been operating on the West Coast of Canada since establishment in 1976. While initially borne out of a cooperative between the major oil companies operating in the Port of Vancouver, the corporation is now federally mandated under the Canada Shipping Act in 1995 following several large spills along the West Coast of North America.

Their mandate is simple enough in theory as stated in their website; “ensure there is a state of preparedness in place when a marine spill occurs and to mitigate the impacts on B.C.’s coast. This includes the protection of wildlife, economic and environmental sensitivities, and the safety of both responders and the public” which is admittedly much more complicated when put into practice. Membership to the WCMRC is mandatory for shipowners “of vessels 400 gross tonnes or greater, or oil tankers over 150 gross tonnes or greater, calling on ports on Canada’s West Coast” and oil handling facilities that “loads or unloads oil across our marine environment must also pay fees to WCMRC.” Cost of membership for ship owners is $775.00 CAD (plus a $175.00 CAD arrangement fee as recommend by the Chamber of Shipping) and contributes to the WCMRC’s annual operating costs (costs incurred for a spill must be paid by the polluter).

As an example of these operating costs, the WCMRC authorities host simulations periodically throughout the year for training purposes and to uphold Transport Canada accreditation. The latest of these simulations occurred in April 2019 in the Port of Nanaimo and mimicked a diesel spill. Additionally, the WCMRC intends to expand full time sites in the Fraser River, Nanaimo, Port Alberni, Saanich Peninsula and near Sooke in order to increase response time and improve efficiency. These projects rely on approval for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion which would have partially funded construction through a toll-based system according to this CBC article. Until the pipeline is confirmed, the WCMRC expansion will have to wait.

Simulated spill off Vancouver Island keeps vessels ready to respond

Farmers Respond to Fluctuating Prices

Data provided by Statistics Canada compares seeded area by acreage from 2015-2018 along with predictions for 2019. While no changes to overall totals are predicted between 2018 and 2019, fluctuations among specific seeds offers an insight into the speculation of Canadian farmers. In their analysis of the data, Statistics Canada states that the “planting intentions may have been influenced by ongoing issues, including lower prices for some crops as a result of global supply, tariffs and decreased foreign demand due to ongoing trade issues.”

According to the data; Statistic’s Canada predicts there will be a decrease in canola, lentil, and soybean seeds planted over the coming year while wheat, barley, peas and flax are projected to increase. Furthermore, interesting conclusions can be reached when extrapolating the data further as summarized by GrainCentral.com: “…all wheat planting intentions were pegged at 10.4 million hectares (Mh). However, there were significant changes among wheat types, with the durum area expected to see its biggest single-year drop since 2010, falling 19pc to 2.03Mh. Conversely, the spring wheat area is predicted to increase by 12pc to 7.85Mh, the highest in 18 years … The area intended to be sown to barley came in at 2.76Mh, and the soybean area is projected to be down significantly from 2.55Mh to 2.3Mh. The latter is primarily due to poor yield results and lack of suitability compared to alternatives.”

Meanwhile, the forecasted reduction in acreage for canola seeds could be related to the current state of Canadian canola as the future of Chinese imports for the seed remains a question mark. Statistic Canada reports a likely 6.6% reduction in expected seeded acreage for 2019 as farmers are left to hypothesize about canola prospects. From Statistics Canada’s Principal field crop areas, March 2019: “record high year-end stocks for the 2018 calendar year, coupled with concerns regarding limited access to China’s canola market, possibly affected anticipated seeding area. These factors have contributed to lower than average prices, which may have some farmers considering seeding fewer acres of canola or other crops. However, resolution of trade concerns or increased canola prices could alter final seeding decisions.” Whether trade, global supply, or tariff related – it is clear that Canadian growers have altered their planting intentions for 2019 including a decrease in oil seeds.

Cruise Ship Season!

The cruise ship season commenced last month with the arrival of the Emerald Princess into Canada Place. The Port of Vancouver is anticipating approximately 290 vessel visits throughout 2019 which would “mark an all-time record for cruise passengers through Canada Place at the Port of Vancouver” with passengers totaling more than 1 million. The cruise ship season, which started March 29th and will end with the Star Princess on November 1, will include the arrival of the Ovation of the Seas. This Royal Caribbean Quantum Class ship, with the capacity to carry 4,905 passengers, holds the record for the largest cruise ship to ever call the Port of Vancouver and will be here May 13th and September 20th.

With each call producing about $3 million in economic activity, the cruise ship industry is certainly a massive benefit to Vancouver as a whole although it does not come without its challenges. For instance, with the increase in ship sizes that is expected over the years to come (ex. the Ovation of the Seas which can hold about 4,900 passengers) the Port of Vancouver along with the Pacific Pilotage Authority have had to adapt to the changing conditions. On March 18, 2019 the Port of Vancouver released a Notice of Amendment to the Port Information Guide which proposes a new English Bay routing system (see the above image). This amendment is designed to alleviate issues with the air draft of larger size vessels entering the harbour by making the approach at less of angle which will allow the ship to be in “greater control over their rate of turn as they transit under the Lions Gate Bridge.”

Additionally, the increase in vessel traffic this time of year poses constraints on the Pacific Pilotage Authority with pilot and tug availability. The PPA publishes the entire cruise ship schedule prior to commencement of the season in order to bring on additional staff and to avoid any last-minute surprises although this cannot always be avoided especially with tug shortages. Regardless of the challenges the industry poses, the industry is a significant boost to Vancouver’s economy (including the pubs and restaurants around the waterfront!).