
Despite recent concerns about Canada’s export performance amid calls for greater West Coast infrastructure investment and a sharp decline in the Chinese market, grain, oilseed, and pulse exports are on pace for record highs in the 2024-25 crop year. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, weekly exports as of June 1 are up by 7.5 million tonnes overall from this time last year reaching a total export of 43.95 million tonnes for the crop year to date.
The largest rise in year-on-year exports to June 1 was in canola. Canola exports are 3.2 million tonnes ahead of last year’s pace with the total to date at 8.5 million tonnes. And with nine weeks left in the crop year, canola exports have already exceeded market expectations for this year and are likely to end up near 10 million tonnes overall.
Durum exports have seen the second largest increase from last year, with year-to-date exports currently at 4.9 million tonnes, which is up by 1.87 million tonnes from last year. This pace is only 464,000 tonnes lower than the record pace set in the 2020-21 crop year. Wheat exports also continue at a record pace with exports to date at 18.4 million tonnes for this crop year, which is 404,000 tonnes ahead of last year’s pace.
Barley and pea exports have been slightly off last year’s pace. Barley exports are currently at 1.76 million tonnes this year, down by 105,800 tonnes from last year’s pace, while peas, currently at 1.7 million tonnes exported, slightly less than 100,000 tonnes below the year previous.
The most surprising aspect of these unexpected record numbers is that they come at a time when China has sharply reduced their overall demand for grain imports. China’s wheat imports in 2024–25 were reduced to 3.5 million tonnes, down from 13.64 million last year as it relies on domestic reserves and a favourable harvests this year.
This reduction itself is expected to cause a projected 12% drop in global wheat trade which will be the steepest in decades. And specifically Canadian exports to China have fallen from 2.02 million to 570,500 tonnes over the same period of last year. Fortunately the increased demand from other markets, particularly Japan, Peru, Colombia and the United Arab Emirates has helped deliver some bountiful numbers for this crop year.